Simulation run · 2026-05-11 · scenario S1

If Dan Hu dies 2031-01-01...

Same death event · two plans. Counterfactual run on the current plan as of May 2026 vs. the recommended plan after BVI/LLC and wills are in place.

Death event
Dan Hu
2031-01-01 · age 49
Scenario
S1
Dan predeceases Chenwen
Estate at death
~$30.6M
585 + Arbour + Westworld + MS + LP
Horizon
24 months
administration window
Tax & friction avoided
$2.5M ↓ to $0.1M
Eliminates US estate tax on the Palo Alto property + the personal MS account; removes 6–9 month Westworld probate paralysis.
Share to intended primary heir
37%→87%
Chenwen Yuan as primary heir · Chinese will + BVI will + BVI shareholder structure align legal direction with stated intent.
Plan as-is · May 2026

Structure incomplete · wills not drafted

585 in personal names · no BVI/LLC · no Chinese will · no BVI will · Westworld single director
Estate leakage at death
$2.5M
US estate tax $2.18M (585 Dan’s half + MS) + probate friction $0.3M
Distribution of $30.6M estate
$2.5M $11.2M $5.6M $5.6M $5.6M Tax & friction Chenwen (37%) Nate Janice Dan’s parents primary heir — receives only 37%
Liquidity over 24 months
$3.5M $2.5M $1.5M $0.5M $0 M0 M6 M12 M18 M24 tax due M9 need (cumulative) available deficit zone
⚠ Forced fire-sale at month 9. US estate tax of $2.18M falls due before Westworld assets can be accessed cleanly (sole director gap). Discount on liquidation estimated 10–20% — an additional $200–400K of value erosion not shown above.
Recommended · structure executed

BVI/LLC live · all 4 wills signed

585 → BVI HoldCo → CA LLC · Chinese will (Arbour) · BVI wills · Westworld co-director · Trust 1000 amended
Estate leakage at death
$0.1M
No US estate tax (BVI shares are not US-situs); residual legal/admin fees only
Distribution of $30.6M estate
$26.5M $2M $1M $1M Chenwen (87%) — primary heir Kids (Trust 1000) Parents DCPA
Liquidity over 24 months
$3.5M $2.5M $1.5M $0.5M $0 M0 M6 M12 M18 M24 need (cumulative) available buffer zone
✓ Liquidity covered throughout administration. Rent flows immediately via BVI HoldCo; Westworld remains operational (Chenwen as co-director); Trust 1500 cash value ($3.4M est.) reserved as backstop. No forced sales, no discount.

What drives the delta

Four structural moves account for the entire counterfactual difference.

01
BVI HoldCo → CA LLC
−$2.18M US estate tax
Converts 585 from US-situs real estate to non-US-situs BVI shares. NRA $60K exemption stops mattering.
02
Chinese will for Arbour
+$12M to primary heir
Replaces 5-way intestacy split with single-heir direction. Mandatory portion (必留份) satisfied by Trust 1000 reference.
03
Westworld co-director
−$0.3M friction
Chenwen as second director means the BVI co keeps operating through the death event — no probate freeze, no fire-sale.
04
Trust 1000 + 1500 access
+$3.4M liquidity backstop
Insurance trust cash value + amended deed give Chenwen a liquidity buffer that doesn't require touching illiquid Shanghai or Palo Alto assets.
Other simulation modes available on the same graph · multi-decade heir spend-down (does the estate survive 30 years of distributions?) · trust distribution schedules (Trust 1500 maturity 2080) · life-expectancy variance Monte Carlo (S1 vs S2 vs S3 probability-weighted) · tax-law sensitivity (what if NRA exemption changes?) · FX shock on RMB-denominated assets.